The numbers say that it’s going to be a horror movie tonight. Be prepared!
The UAE national team are better than us, but like Thailand, they are in a bit of a rut right now. They didn’t look good in the opening game against Bahrain and there is huge pressure on them to pickup a win.
They will still look to control possession and build slowly, but they do not have any progressive passers in the team. So, they tend to get stuck in and around the half-line, play a couple of passes and then try to launch it.
This is how we can win the ball without breaking shape.
But for that, Sunil Chhetri and Ashique Kuruniyan need to cut off access to the Emarati double pivot. Thailand used only one player there, so it was relatively easier to mark but with two in there, the forwards will also need to contribute defensively.
In defence, the UAE defenders are slow and we will once again be relying on the pace of Udanta Singh and Ashique Kuruniyan, but their lack of end product means that as usual, it’ll be up to Sunil Chhetri to get the goals.
If India defends well, we can play for a draw but going forwards, I don’t see how we can hurt UAE. We’ve probably used up all our goals against Thailand and are going to struggle for the remainder of the tournament.
The 10K simulations for the tie give out the following results:
India scored 0, 50% of the time & drew only 0.61%
Scored 1, 34% of the time, drew 2.4%, won 0.8%
Scored 2, 12% of the time, drew 7.9%, won 4.2%
Scored 2+, 4% of the time, drew 9.2%, won 0.5%
UAE’s most likely wins are by 4-0, 5-0, 6-0 and 3-0
So, statistically speaking, it looks like a pall of gloom.
Our best chance is to hope they put in another terrible performance and we sneak away with a draw.
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